According to Mark Scott’s article for BusinessWeek, the candy industry is consolidating and there are few places left to target for growth.  Miller Zell conducted a focus group earlier this year with shoppers aged 16-35 where we asked about their behavior when it comes to making candy purchases.  Most of the respondents, event the teen group, admitted that candy purchases are typically relegated to holiday and gum purchases.  Most indicated that health was a consideration in their candy purchases and while most candy is viewed as empty calories, gum is a necessary oral hygiene accessory.

 So where does this leave these confectioners?  In emerging markets like India; which brought Cadbury a 16.1% revenue increase last year.  Scott reports that emerging markets have an “insatiable appetite for candy [which] is fueling double-digit market growth.”  No wonder Hershey and Kraft want in on that action.  The predominance of their candy sales are domestic.  The western hemisphere only saw a 5.2% increase in candy sales last year.  Kraft actually reported a 5.7% decline.   

Scott goes on to detail why this fight for Cadbury is important to the other companies and the candy business overall.  However, in the grand scheme of things, it’s interesting to watch the consolidation of this particular category.  One has to wonder, if over time it will continue to significantly diminish in size, once the rest of the world adopts the western way and decides that the joys of candy aren’t worth the calories or cavities.  Do you think that the candy category will eventually go away as a major business and be reduced to a segment within a CPG?  Can you think of any other products categories where major players dissolved to segments of larger diversified consumer companies?

Trendwatching.com just released a list of “50+ new business ideas that defy doom and gloom.” The list of ideas includes unique ways to engage the consumer, beyond typical marketing messaging of “buy this, it will make you feel good.”  The story of the product integrated into the shopping experience, exploiting the “me” generation and making products unique to each individual consumer, connecting with consumer values i.e. sustainability and charity — these are just some of the angles that brand builders and retailers should be considering.

So change is good, but what about risk.  Risk is an integral part of innovation because the idea is to do something that isn’t proven. However, where you mitigate the risk is in the expert execution of the plan. Having partners witty enough to temper delightfully creative ideation with researched and fielded understanding of what’s on the consumer’s mind.  The ability to communicate with consumers in a way that’s focused, exciting and, most importantly, penetrating is what creates a breakthrough.

“Dubai’s transformation from desert backwater to commercial hub has attracted retailers from around the world, including Spain’s Inditex, owner of fashion chain Zara, British luxury retailer Harvey Nichols and Italian designer brand Fendi.

This spurred a real estate boom in the emirate that saw retail space increase at a dizzying rate. In 2008, leasable mall space rose 28 percent to 21.4 million square feet, according to a study by real estate services firm Jones Lang Lasalle.”

Reuters UK ran a story discussing how the country and it’s retailers are adjusting to changing shopper behaviors.

According to the New York Times, quite a few technology companies are rushing to be the first and the best at building a salesperson kiosk for apparel retailers. These interactive kiosks will provide customers with product information, pricing, and checkout options. The systems will keep data on shoppers’ previous purchases and suggest apparel and accessories that match their preferences. Some versions of the system will even help shoppers try the products (virtually, of course) before purchasing. This has been tested before but the new version is much more stylized than the old, clunky kiosks that are still used at the airport. 

This sounds good, but there’s one problem…some kinds of shopping require personal service. Men may be more inclined to this type of hands-off service. They need to know if the size, color and style are in stock. If they are, they buy and the guy is out the door. Women, on the other hand, often rely on the personal opinion of the salesperson to influence their purchase decision. They want to discuss fit, trends and styling ideas. Sometimes, that conversation is part and parcel of the shopping experience. Understandably, retailers are trying to find ways to remain relevant in the face of competition with the Internet. This could work provided adequate research is conducted to determine just what demographic will use a kiosk like this and how they would use it. Without that understanding, this effort could fall flat. It could even create an opportunity for stores that put an emphasis on service; stealing customers who couldn’t find anyone to help them decide if purple was really their color.

Smith interviews a consumer who says that instead of their vacation trips to Copenhagen and Kenya, they will opt for something a little more low key like a facial or dance class at the local gym.  Most of America isn’t having to make this sort of trade down. Most people are deciding whether to stick with Froot Loops or switch to store brand Fruity Rings.  But the bigger point of the article is that people are, in fact, trading down at all income levels.

The article goes on to interview shoppers who are bringing their entertainment into the home and eliminating “theater, restaurants, and football games” in exchange for eating in with a glass of wine or bottle of beer. This is consistent with the Miller Zell Shopper Survey that showed 50% of shoppers are spending less over all categories but increasing spending in grocery by 62%. 68% of shoppers reported staying in versus eating out or going out for entertainment.

This is bad news for Broadway, but great for grocery if retailers and category managers heed the call.